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• Sales Rank: #15219466 in Books
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Without recourse to higher mathematics, this book will acquaint the lay reader with concepts and uses of probability theory and offer the skilled mathematician the stimulus of seeing how a great scientist expressed complex ideas in simple terms.

• Sales Rank: #4076566 in Books
• Published on: 1951
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 196 pages

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THE FAMED MATHEMATICIAN LOOKS AT “THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTIONS OF LIFE” FROM A PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE
By Steven H Propp
Pierre-Simon, marquis de Laplace (1749-1827) was a French mathematician and astronomer whose work was pivotal to the development of mathematical astronomy and statistics. He wrote in the Introduction to this 1812 book, “This philosophical essay is the development of a lecture on probabilities which I delivered in 1795 to the normal schools whither I had been called… as professor of mathematics with Lagrange… I present here without the aid of analysis the principles and general results of this theory, applying them to the most important questions of life, which are indeed for the most part only problems of probability… nearly all our knowledge is problematical; and… even in the mathematical sciences themselves … are based on probabilities; so that the entire system of human knowledge is connected with the theory set forth in this essay… in considering, even in the eternal principles of reason, justice, and humanity, only the favorable changes which are constantly attached to them, there is a great advantage in following these principles and serious inconvenience in departing from them.” (Pg. 1-2)

He suggests, "We ought then to regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its anterior state and as the cause of the one which is to follow. Given for one instant an intelligence which could comprehend all the forces by which nature is animated and the respective situation of the beings who compose it---an intelligence sufficiently vast to submit these data to analysis---it would embrace in the same formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the lightest atom; for it, nothing would be uncertain and the future, as the past, would be present to its eyes." (Pg. 4)

He notes, “the transcendent results of calculus are, like all the abstractions of the understanding, general signs whose true meaning may be ascertained only by repassing by metaphysical analysis to the elementary ideas which have led to them; this often presents great difficulties, for the human mind tries still less to transport itself into the future than to retire within itself. The comparison of infinitely small differences with finite differences is able similarly to shed great light upon the metaphysics of infinitesimal calculus.” (Pg. 44)

He observes, “Amid the variable and unknown causes which we comprehend under the name ‘chance,’ and which render uncertain and irregular the march of events, we see appearing, in the measure that they multiply, a striking regularity which seems to hold to a design and which has been considered as a proof of Providence. But in reflecting upon this we soon recognize that this regularity is only the development of the respective possibilities of simple events which ought to present themselves more often when they are probable.” (Pg. 60)

Concerning jury trials, he points out, “In a jury of twelve members, if the plurality demanded for the condemnation is eight of twelve votes, the probability of the error to be feared is … a little more than one eighth, it is almost 1/22nd if this plurality consists of nine votes. In the case of unanimity the probability of the error to be feared is … more than a thousand times less than in our juries. This supposes that the unanimity results only from proofs favorable or contrary to the accused… the probability of the decision is too feeble in our juries, and I think that in order to give a sufficient guarantee to innocence, one ought to demand at least a plurality of nine votes in twelve.” (Pg. 139)

He comments, “[Leibnitz] imagined, since God can be represented by unity and nothing by zero, that the Supreme Being had drawn from nothing all beings, as unity with zero expresses all the numbers in this system of arithmetic. This idea was so pleasing to Leibnitz that he communicated it to the Jesuit Grimaldi… in the hope that this emblem of creation would convert to Christianity the emperor there who particularly loved the sciences. I report this incident only to show to what extent the prejudices of infancy can mislead the greatest men.” (Pg. 169)

He suggests, “Man, made for the temperature which he enjoys, and for the element which he breathes, would not be able, according to all appearance, to live upon the other planets. But ought there not to be an infinity of organization relative to the various constitutions of the globes of this universe? If the single difference of the elements and of the climates make so much variety in terrestrial productions, how much greater the difference ought to be among those of the various planets and of their satellites! The most active imagination can form no idea of it; but their existence is very probable.” (Pg. 181)

This book will be of interest not just to students of the history of science, but to students of probability and related areas.

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• Sales Rank: #10512618 in Books
• Published on: 1979
• Binding: Plastic Comb
• 344 pages

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• Published on: 1994-01-01
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• Published on: 2007
• Binding: Paperback

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** Download Ebook The Wrong Mother: A Zailer and Waterhouse Mystery (A Zailer & Waterhouse Mystery Book 3), by Sophie Hannah

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A chilling, compulsively readable novel of psychological suspense from the author of The Dead Lie Down and The Other Woman’s House

Sally Thorning is watching the news with her husband one night when she hears an unexpected name—Mark Bretherick. It’s a name she shouldn’t know, but last year after a business trip canceled at the last minute, Sally treated herself to a secret vacation—away from her hectic family life—and met a man. After their brief affair, the two planned to never meet again. All the details are the same: his job, where he lives, his wife Geraldine and daughter Lucy. But the photograph on the news is not the man Sally knew. And now Geraldine and Lucy are dead.

The third book in Sophie Hannah’s acclaimed Zailer and Waterhouse series, The Wrong Mother delivers white knuckle suspense and Hannah’s trademark plot twists, and is perfect for fans of Gillian Flynn and Ruth Rendell.

• Sales Rank: #208218 in eBooks
• Published on: 2009-09-29
• Released on: 2009-09-29
• Format: Kindle eBook

From Publishers Weekly
Starred Review. Sally Thorning, part-time environment rescuer and full-time mother, struggles to maintain her sanity and juggle the overwhelming demands of work and home in this superior psychological mystery from British author Hannah (Little Face). During a week away from her husband and children, Sally has a brief affair. A year later a local headline tragedy—Sally's lover's wife appears to have murdered her six-year-old daughter then committed suicide—reveals that Sally's lover was not who he claimed to be and she needs to find out why. After surviving a shove in front of a bus, Sally re-examines that unwise affair as she plays amateur detective and nearly loses all she values in the process. The story alternates between Sally's confessional and a tight police procedural interspersed with evidence—pages torn from the diary of the alleged daughter-killer. Paced like a ticking time bomb with flawlessly distinct characterization, this is a fiercely fresh and un-put-downable read. 5-city author tour. (Oct.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review
"Shockingly (and refreshingly) blunt riffs about the violent emotions of motherhood and the familial yearnings of men, along with chilling and darkly funny revelations about lust and loyalty, make this novel one of the season's most absorbing reads."
-O Magazine
""The Wrong Mother" is an un-put-downable read, and as a $15 paperback, the bargain mystery of the year!"
-Bookpage (Mystery of the month)
"A superior psychological mystery...Paced like a ticking time bomb with flawlessly distinct characterization, this is a fiercely fresh and un-put-downable read."
-"Publishers Weekly" (starred)
"The stress of mothering young children while working outside the home is at the center of this British mystery that's part psychological thriller and part police procedural...A best-seller in Britain...this gripping novel deserves similar success here."
-"Booklist" (starred)
"["The Wrong Mother"] is [Hannah's] most accomplished novel yet. As thed

About the Author
Sophie Hannah is the bestselling author of nine novels and is also an award-winning poet. Her Hercule Poirot mystery, the first to be sanctioned by the Agatha Christie estate, was published in 2014. She lives in Cambridge, England, with her husband and two children, and is a Fellow Commoner at Lucy Cavendish College.

Most helpful customer reviews

76 of 83 people found the following review helpful.
Unlikeable People in Unbelievable Plot
By SandyCB
I almost gave this novel three stars because it did a good job holding my attention and featured an intriguing plot, but in the end I couldn't get over its basic problems: many of the characters are irritating and behave stupidly, and -- worse -- the ultimate solution rests upon information known only to the characters. To be fair, though, the plot gets so silly and motivations so confused that I'm not sure better plotting would have been enough to save it. As for characters, there are simply too many of them. There are detectives crawling all over this novel, and half of their names start with "s". In an effort to distinguish them we waste a lot of time on the backgrounds of totally unimportant characters. It would have been a much more interesting read if there had been three or so detectives and a boss in the background. I don't regret reading this book, but there are much better choices out there.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Very readable but predictable.
By Booknut
I read this and then ordered 5 other Hannah titles, but this, as it turned out, was the best. For a poet, her prose isn't very poetic. But that's okay--she's good at imagining the nuances of how events affect her characters and how they react. However, her resolutions are predictable. The worst part (especially in her other books) is that most all of her characters are close to 40, yet they behave as if they're still in school.

86 of 101 people found the following review helpful.
Bridget's Review
By bridget3420
Sally had an affair. She was exhausted and in desperate need of a break. When her business trip was unexpectedly cancelled, she decided to get away anyway. She met Mark and their tryst began. They talked about lives they lead, about their work and about their families. When the vacation came to an end, the two parted ways thinking they would never see each other again.

One night while Sally and her husband are watching TV and to Sally's surprise, Mark's name comes up on the news. To her surprise, his wife and child have both been killed. When they show Mark's picture, Sally realizes that the man she was with was not really Mark, her short term lover was using the identity of someone else. Now she is in panic mode and scared for her family. Will she be able to protect her family from this madman that she once shared a bed with?

I'm addicted. Now I have to go out and buy all of her other books. Seriously. This was a phenomenal read that blew my mind. I actually received an ARC of this at the beginning of the summer, so I had actually read it a while ago. I am still in a daze over how wonderfully thrilling this book was. If you aren't going to buy it, at least enter my giveaway because I really think you all could get hooked on Sophie's writing. If you do, maybe we could start a club. LOL.

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